Homes for sale in Orlando Florida - any signs of progress?

One way to check how the market of homes for sale in Orlando Florida is doing is to look at the monthly statistics issued by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association. The data covers:

". . . all listings taken or sold by ORRA brokers, regardless of location and is exclusive to residential property, which includes townhomes, duplexes, single-family homes, and condos. It does not include vacant land or commercial transactions."

So even though it doesn't include everything (for example, For Sale By Owner properties) it does represent the majority of what's available and it is a good measure of market status in the Central Florida real estate market. The Association covers Hillsborough, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Polk, Seminole, and Volusia counties.

Numbers for January 2009 were issued last week so let's take a look:

1. Inventory: As of the end of January 2009, the Realtors Association had 22613 homes for sale in Orlando Florida actively listed for sale. That is 12.1% better than January 2008, when the figure was 25724, so it does show an encouraging downward trend - but there is still a long way to go. With closed contracts averaging approximately 1200 per month, the latest inventory number represents around 18 or 19 months' closings. Some industry experts believe that number needs to be between six and twelve months' closings before the market is healthy again. Just by way of a contrast, four years ago when the property boom was at it's height, the inventory number was 3317!

2. New Listings: in the three months to January 2009, 11394 new listings were taken, 8.8% down on the same period one year before. That's one of the factors helping to reduce the inventory and it looks as if a fall in prices and long lead times to sell are reinforcing the message that, if you don't really have to sell, keep hold of your property until the market recovers.

3. New contracts: for the three months to January 2009 there were 5797 new contacts, compared with 3455 in the same period last year. A 67.8% increase, undoubetedly reflecting reduced prices, and reduced interest rates. Orlando properties are now more affordable. The January ORRA report also states that

"The median price of Orlando homes sold in January ($148,274) decreased by 33.06 percent compared to January 2008 while the area’s average interest rate dropped to its lowest point since May of 2005, creating market conditions that further tilt in favor of buyers."

- an enormous change!

4. Expired and withdrawn: A total of 10289 listings expired or were withdrawn during the three month period. In the three months to January 2008 this figure was 11845, so the trend is in the right direction. It is quite remarkable when you compare the 10289 number with New Listings in the same period: it tells us that for every 10 people who listed their home, another 9 took their property off the market. Clearly there will be some duplication here (some expirations will re-appear as new listings later) but it does highlight the difficulties faced by Sellers (if any highlight was necessary).

So there you have it: in summary, some progress but still very much a buyers' market. Still quite a way to go so we need more good news for the next few months. Maybe, just maybe, something useful will emerge from the Washington DC merry-go-round of stimulus, bail out and spending to energize real estate markets. Certainly a lot more progress is needed before those with homes for sale in Orlando Florida can expect a comfortable ride.